Anatomy of a downswing…

Shane035 mins

Lately I’ve been running like absolute trash, mostly on ACR. Feeling fed up with how far under EV I’ve been running I enlisted the support of Deepseek to better understand downswings in poker, as they relate to running under EV. I thought the responses were interesting and illuminating so thought it would be worth a share.

For context…

Over the past 182K-ish hands we are running at an All In EV of roughly $900 and a Net Won of -563, a swing of ~$1463. This felt unreasonable, even given what we know about variance in poker. I wanted to understand how common this is, if I’m actually bad, and what I can do about it.

The first question I wanted to know was how common is this, so I asked “what are the odds of running this much under EV over 180000+ hands?” Here is the response:

To determine the odds of running a specific amount under expected value (EV) over a large number of hands in poker, we can use the concept of standard deviation and the normal distribution. Here’s a step-by-step approach:

  1. Understand the Given Data:
  • Hands Played: 180,000+
  • Net Won: -658.64
  • AIEV (All-In Expected Value): 912.06
  1. Calculate the Difference Between Actual Winnings and Expected Winnings:
  • Difference = Net Won – AIEV
  • Difference = -658.64 – 912.06 = -1570.70
  1. Determine the Standard Deviation (SD) per Hand:
  • From the data, the standard deviation for one hand is approximately 1815.51.
  1. Calculate the Standard Deviation Over 180,000 Hands:
  • SD_total = SD_per_hand * sqrt(number of hands)
  • SD_total = 1815.51 * sqrt(180,000)
  • SD_total ≈ 1815.51 * 424.26 ≈ 770,000
  1. Calculate the Z-Score:
  • Z = (Difference) / SD_total
  • Z = -1570.70 / 770,000 ≈ -0.002
  1. Determine the Probability:
  • A Z-score of -0.002 is very close to the mean in a normal distribution. The probability of being this close to the mean is very high, almost certain.

Given the large number of hands, the difference between actual winnings and expected winnings is relatively small compared to the standard deviation. Therefore, the odds of running this much under EV over 180,000+ hands are extremely high, and it is not statistically unusual.

In summary, the observed difference is well within the expected range of variation given the number of hands played and the standard deviation.

So this is normal then? Hang on…does it know I’m playing mainly 25NL and 50NL? So I asked “For a mix of 25NL and 50NL, mostly 25NL, is it still within normal range?”

To determine if running a specific amount under expected value (EV) over a large number of hands is within the normal range for a mix of 25NL and 50NL (mostly 25NL), we need to consider the stakes and the typical standard deviations associated with these games. Here’s a more detailed analysis:

  1. Understand the Stakes and Typical Standard Deviations:
  • 25NL and 50NL: These are lower to mid-stakes No-Limit Hold’em games.
  • Standard Deviation (SD) per 100 Hands: For 25NL, a typical SD might be around 80-100 big blinds (BB) per 100 hands. For 50NL, it might be slightly higher, around 90-110 BB per 100 hands.
  1. Convert the Given Data to Big Blinds:
  • Net Won: -658.64 (in dollars)
  • AIEV: 912.06 (in dollars)
  • Difference: -1570.70 (in dollars)
  • Assuming mostly 25NL, let’s convert to big blinds (BB):
    • 1 BB at 25NL = $0.25
    • Difference in BB = -1570.70 / 0.25 = -6282.8 BB
  1. Calculate the Standard Deviation Over 180,000 Hands:
  • SD per 100 Hands: Let’s assume an average SD of 90 BB per 100 hands for a mix of 25NL and 50NL.
  • SD_total = SD_per_100_hands * sqrt(number of 100-hand sets)
  • Number of 100-hand sets = 180,000 / 100 = 1,800
  • SD_total = 90 * sqrt(1,800) ≈ 90 * 42.43 ≈ 3818.7 BB
  1. Calculate the Z-Score:
  • Z = (Difference) / SD_total
  • Z = -6282.8 / 3818.7 ≈ -1.645
  1. Determine the Probability:
  • A Z-score of -1.645 corresponds to a probability of about 5% in a normal distribution. This means there’s a 5% chance of running this much under EV or worse.

Given this analysis, running 6,282.8 BB under EV over 180,000 hands at a mix of 25NL and 50NL is somewhat unusual but still within the realm of possibility. It suggests that you are experiencing a negative swing that is not extremely rare but is on the higher end of what one might expect.

In summary, while it is not the most common outcome, it is still within the normal range of variance for these stakes over a large number of hands.

So there is a 5% chance of running this much under EV. That’s pretty crazy. I then wanted to understand what the origional assumptions were that made it sound very reasonable to run like this, so I asked “What stakes did you assume I waas playing when you first said that it was very normal to run like this?”

When I initially responded to your first question and said that running significantly under expected value (EV) over 180,000+ hands was fairly normal, I made a general assumption based on typical poker statistics and variance. However, I did not explicitly assume a specific stake level at that time. Here’s a breakdown of the assumptions and context:

Initial Assumptions:

  1. Standard Deviation (SD):
  • I used the provided standard deviation (SD) of 1815.51 per hand, which is quite high. This SD is more typical for higher-stakes games or games with a lot of variance.
  • For lower stakes, the SD per hand is usually lower because the pots are smaller.
  1. Win Rate:
  • I assumed a general win rate that could be applicable across various stakes, which might not be accurate for specific stakes like 25NL and 50NL.
  1. Sample Size:
  • I considered the large sample size of 180,000 hands, which generally reduces the impact of variance. However, the specific stakes and typical win rates at those stakes were not factored in initially.

Revised Context (After Knowing the Stakes):

  1. Standard Deviation (SD):
  • For 25NL and 50NL, the SD per 100 hands is typically around 80-100 BB (big blinds). This translates to a lower SD per hand compared to the initial assumption.
  • For example, at 25NL, 1 BB = $0.25, so an SD of 90 BB/100 hands would be $22.50 per 100 hands, or approximately $0.225 per hand.
  1. Win Rate:
  • At 25NL and 50NL, a good win rate might be around 3-5 BB/100 hands. This is more specific and relevant to the stakes you are playing.

Impact on Conclusion:

  • Initial Conclusion: The initial conclusion that the result was fairly normal was based on a high SD assumption, which made the observed difference seem smaller relative to the total SD over 180,000 hands.
  • Revised Conclusion: After adjusting for the lower SD typical of 25NL and 50NL, the observed difference became more significant. The Z-score calculation showed that running 6,282.8 BB under EV over 180,000 hands is somewhat unusual but still within the realm of possibility.

Summary:

  • Initial Assumptions: High SD per hand, general win rate assumptions.
  • Revised Assumptions: Lower SD per hand typical of 25NL and 50NL, specific win rates for these stakes.
  • Impact: The revised analysis provided a more accurate and context-specific conclusion, indicating that while the downswing is significant, it is still within the range of normal variance for these stakes.

By refining the assumptions based on the specific stakes, the analysis became more precise and relevant to your situation. This highlights the importance of considering stake-specific factors when evaluating poker results.

Interesting…so what a good winrate at 25NL and 50NL looks like is far different from a good winrate at higher stakes. So…what is my expected winrate if I am running more “normal”? I asked “If I was running even, meaning not under EV, what woulde my winrate be?”

To estimate what your win rate would be if you were running even (i.e., not under expected value (EV)), we can use the difference between your actual net winnings and your all-in expected value (AIEV). Here’s how to calculate it:

  1. Given Data:
  • Net Won: -658.64 (in dollars)
  • AIEV: 912.06 (in dollars)
  • Hands Played: 180,000
  1. Calculate the Difference:
  • Difference = AIEV – Net Won
  • Difference = 912.06 – (-658.64) = 912.06 + 658.64 = 1570.70 (in dollars)
  1. Convert the Difference to Big Blinds (BB):
  • Assuming mostly 25NL, where 1 BB = $0.25:
  • Difference in BB = 1570.70 / 0.25 = 6282.8 BB
  1. Calculate the Adjusted Win Rate:
  • Adjusted Win Rate (in BB/100) = (Difference in BB) / (Number of Hands / 100)
  • Adjusted Win Rate = 6282.8 / (180,000 / 100) = 6282.8 / 1800 ≈ 3.49 BB/100

So, if you were running even (not under EV), your win rate would be approximately 3.49 BB/100. This is a strong win rate, especially for a mix of 25NL and 50NL, indicating that your underlying game is solid and profitable.

This calculation shows that the negative impact of running under EV has significantly affected your actual results, but your expected performance is quite good. As variance evens out over time, your actual win rate should converge closer to this expected win rate.

Wait, so then if during this downswing I’m at -0.6bb/100, then that’s actually pretty good then, isn’t it?

Yes, if you are at -0.6 big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100) during a significant downswing, that is actually quite impressive and suggests that your underlying game is strong. Here’s why:

  1. Understanding Win Rates:
  • Win Rate: A win rate of -0.6 bb/100 is very close to break-even. For context, many professional players aim for win rates of 3-5 bb/100 at these stakes. Being only slightly negative over a large sample indicates that you are playing well despite the downswing.
  1. Variance and Downswings:
  • Variance Impact: Downswings can significantly impact your results, especially in No-Limit Hold’em where all-in pots and coolers can create large swings. Maintaining a win rate close to break-even during such a period suggests that you are managing variance well.
  • Expected Value (EV): If your AIEV (All-In Expected Value) is positive, it indicates that you are making good decisions in all-in situations, and the negative results are more due to bad luck than poor play.
  1. Context of Stakes:
  • 25NL and 50NL: At these stakes, the competition can be quite tough, and maintaining a near-break-even win rate during a downswing is a good sign. It shows resilience and the ability to adapt to challenging conditions.
  1. Leak Identification:
  • Minimal Leaks: A win rate of -0.6 bb/100 suggests that any leaks in your game are likely minor. However, it’s still beneficial to review your play to identify and correct any small mistakes that could be holding you back from achieving a positive win rate.
  1. Mental Game:
  • Mental Toughness: Maintaining a near-break-even win rate during a downswing also indicates strong mental toughness. Staying focused and disciplined during tough periods is crucial for long-term success in poker.

In summary, being at -0.6 bb/100 during a significant downswing is a positive indicator of your overall skill and resilience. It suggests that you are playing well and that your results are likely to improve as variance evens out over time. Keep up the good work, continue to review and refine your game, and maintain a strong mental approach.

Oh, so that’s slightly encouraging then…I WOULD have a strong winrate and I’m not terrible. “What would be the appropriate dollar value running at EV?”

To determine the appropriate dollar value for running at and above expected value (EV), we can use the adjusted win rates calculated earlier and convert them back to dollar values. Here’s how to do it:

  1. Given Data:
  • Hands Played: 180,000
  • Big Blind (BB) at 25NL: $0.25
  1. Adjusted Win Rates:
  • Running at EV: 3.49 BB/100
  • Running slightly above EV (e.g., 500 BB above EV): 3.77 BB/100
  1. Calculate the Dollar Value for Running at EV:
  • Win Rate in BB/100: 3.49
  • Number of 100-hand sets: 180,000 / 100 = 1,800
  • Total BB Won: 3.49 * 1,800 = 6,282 BB
  • Total Dollars Won: 6,282 BB * $0.25 = $1,570.50
  1. Calculate the Dollar Value for Running Slightly Above EV:
  • Win Rate in BB/100: 3.77
  • Total BB Won: 3.77 * 1,800 = 6,786 BB
  • Total Dollars Won: 6,786 BB * $0.25 = $1,696.50

So, the appropriate dollar values would be:

  • Running at EV: Approximately $1,570.50
  • Running slightly above EV (e.g., 500 BB above EV): Approximately $1,696.50

These values represent your expected net winnings if you were running at or slightly above EV over 180,000 hands at mostly 25NL. This shows the impact of variance on your results and highlights the potential for improved performance as variance evens out or turns in your favor.

“Is it possible to have a positive winrate when running this far under EV?”

Yes, it is possible to have a positive win rate even when running significantly under expected value (EV) over a large sample of hands. Here’s how this can happen and what it means:

  1. Understanding Win Rate and EV:
  • Win Rate: This is your actual net winnings expressed in big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100).
  • Expected Value (EV): This represents the average outcome if the same situation were repeated many times. Running under EV means your actual results are worse than the expected results due to bad luck in all-in situations and other variance factors.
  1. Positive Win Rate Despite Running Under EV:
  • If your actual win rate is positive while running under EV, it indicates that you are performing well in non-all-in situations and making profitable decisions overall.
  • For example, if your AIEV (All-In Expected Value) is significantly higher than your actual net winnings, it means you are winning less than expected in all-in pots but still making money in other areas of the game.
  1. Example Scenario:
  • Actual Net Won: -658.64 (in dollars)
  • AIEV: 912.06 (in dollars)
  • Difference: -1570.70 (in dollars)
  • Hands Played: 180,000
  • Win Rate Calculation:
    • Adjusted Win Rate (if running at EV): 3.49 bb/100 (as calculated earlier)
    • Actual Win Rate: If your actual win rate is positive, say 1 bb/100, it means you are making money overall despite the bad luck in all-in situations.
  1. Implications:
  • Strong Non-All-In Play: A positive win rate despite running under EV suggests that your play in non-all-in situations is strong and profitable.
  • Future Improvement: As variance evens out over time, your actual results should improve and align more closely with your expected results, potentially leading to an even higher win rate.
  1. Actions to Take:
  • Continue Strong Play: Keep focusing on making good decisions in all aspects of the game.
  • Review All-In Situations: Ensure that your all-in decisions are sound and that you are getting your money in good when possible.
  • Mental Resilience: Maintain a strong mental game to handle the variance and stay focused on long-term results.

In summary, having a positive win rate while running under EV is a good sign that your overall game is strong. It indicates that you are making profitable decisions in non-all-in situations and that your results are likely to improve as variance balances out. Keep up the good work and continue to refine your strategies.

“I don’t have a positive winrate running this far under EV. you saw my results. based on my results what would have to be true for me to have a positive winrate over this sample?”

Given your results, where you are running significantly under expected value (EV) and have a negative win rate, let’s analyze what would need to be true for you to have a positive win rate over this sample:

  1. Current Results:
  • Net Won: -658.64 (in dollars)
  • AIEV: 912.06 (in dollars)
  • Difference: -1570.70 (in dollars)
  • Hands Played: 180,000
  • Win Rate: Negative
  1. Scenario for Positive Win Rate:
  • To have a positive win rate, your actual net winnings would need to be higher than your current results. Specifically, your net winnings would need to be positive.
  1. Calculating Required Net Won for Positive Win Rate:
  • Desired Net Won: Let’s assume a modest positive win rate of 1 bb/100.
  • Big Blind (BB) at 25NL: $0.25
  • Number of 100-hand sets: 180,000 / 100 = 1,800
  • Total BB Needed: 1 bb/100 * 1,800 = 1,800 BB
  • Total Dollars Needed: 1,800 BB * $0.25 = $450
  1. Adjusting for Running at EV:
  • If you were running at EV, your net winnings would be closer to your AIEV.
  • AIEV: 912.06 (in dollars)
  • Required Net Won for Positive Win Rate: $450
  • Difference Needed: $450 – (-658.64) = $1,108.64
  1. Implications:
  • Better Performance in Non-All-In Pots: To achieve a positive win rate, you would need to perform better in non-all-in pots, making more profitable decisions and winning more hands outside of all-in situations.
  • Reduced Bad Luck in All-In Pots: While you can’t control luck, reducing the number of unfavorable all-in situations and getting your money in good more often would help.
  • Improved Overall Strategy: Enhancing your overall strategy, including preflop play, postflop decision-making, and opponent exploitation, would contribute to a positive win rate.
  1. Actions to Achieve Positive Win Rate:
  • Review and Adjust Strategy: Analyze your hand histories to identify and correct leaks in your game.
  • Focus on Non-All-In Play: Improve your play in non-all-in pots to increase your win rate in these areas.
  • Mental Game: Maintain a strong mental game to handle variance and stay focused on making good decisions.

In summary, to have a positive win rate over this sample, you would need to improve your performance in non-all-in pots and reduce the impact of bad luck in all-in situations. This involves refining your overall strategy, making more profitable decisions, and continuing to work on your mental resilience.

I wanted to understand, broadly, what I should do, so I asked explicitly “Given all of this, what would you suggest I do?”

Given your situation—running significantly under expected value (EV) over a large sample of hands at 25NL and 50NL—here are some actionable steps you can take to improve your results and turn things around:

1. Review Your Game for Leaks

  • Analyze Hand Histories: Use tracking software (e.g., PokerTracker, Hold’em Manager) to review your hands. Focus on spots where you lost the most money or made questionable decisions.
  • Identify Common Mistakes:
    • Are you overvaluing hands in marginal spots?
    • Are you calling too much or folding too much in certain situations?
    • Are you bluffing too often or not often enough?
  • Focus on All-In EV Spots: Since you’re running under EV, review your all-in decisions. Are you getting your money in good, or are you making -EV shoves/calls?

2. Work on Your Mental Game

  • Accept Variance: Understand that running under EV is part of poker, especially over large samples. Avoid tilting or making emotional decisions.
  • Set Realistic Expectations: Recognize that even winning players experience downswings. Focus on making good decisions rather than short-term results.
  • Take Breaks: If you’re feeling frustrated or tilted, step away from the tables for a while. A clear mind leads to better decisions.

3. Study and Improve Your Strategy

  • Preflop Play: Ensure you’re using a solid preflop strategy. Use a proven preflop chart and adjust based on table dynamics.
  • Postflop Play: Focus on improving your postflop decision-making. Study concepts like:
    • Pot control
    • Value betting thin
    • Bluffing in the right spots
    • Exploiting opponent tendencies
  • All-In Spots: Study GTO (Game Theory Optimal) and exploitative strategies for all-in situations to ensure you’re getting your money in good.

4. Adjust to Your Opponents

  • Table Selection: Play at tables with weaker opponents. Avoid tables with strong regs unless you’re confident in your edge.
  • Exploit Weaknesses: Identify and exploit common mistakes your opponents make. For example:
    • Overfolding to aggression
    • Calling too much with weak hands
    • Playing too predictably
  • Dynamic Adjustments: Adjust your strategy based on the table dynamics. For example, play tighter at aggressive tables and looser at passive tables.

5. Focus on Non-All-In Pots

  • Since you’re running under EV in all-in pots, focus on maximizing your win rate in non-all-in pots. This includes:
    • Winning small pots with well-timed bluffs
    • Extracting maximum value from strong hands
    • Avoiding costly mistakes in marginal spots

6. Bankroll Management

  • Play Within Your Bankroll: Ensure you’re playing at stakes where you have a proper bankroll (e.g., 20-30 buy-ins for NLHE). This reduces stress and allows you to play your best game.
  • Move Down if Necessary: If the downswing is affecting your confidence or bankroll, consider moving down in stakes temporarily to rebuild your confidence and bankroll.

7. Seek Feedback and Coaching

  • Join a Study Group: Discuss hands and strategies with other players. A fresh perspective can help you identify leaks you might not see yourself.
  • Hire a Coach: If possible, invest in a coach who can analyze your game and provide personalized advice.
  • Use Training Resources: Watch training videos, read books, and use solvers to improve your understanding of the game.

8. Track Your Progress

  • Set Goals: Set achievable goals for improvement (e.g., improving your win rate by 1 bb/100 over the next 50,000 hands).
  • Monitor Results: Regularly review your results and hand histories to track your progress and identify areas for improvement.
  • Stay Patient: Remember that poker is a long-term game. Focus on making small, consistent improvements rather than expecting immediate results.

9. Consider Running Above EV

  • While you can’t control luck, you can put yourself in spots where you’re more likely to run above EV:
    • Get your money in good in all-in pots.
    • Avoid marginal all-in spots unless you have a clear edge.
    • Focus on maximizing your equity in every hand.

10. Stay Positive and Persistent

  • Long-Term Mindset: Understand that downswings are temporary. If you’re making good decisions, your results will improve over time.
  • Celebrate Small Wins: Focus on the process rather than the results. Celebrate small improvements in your game, even if they don’t immediately translate to winning sessions.

Final Thoughts:

Your results suggest that you’re running significantly under EV, but your underlying game may still be strong. By focusing on improving your strategy, managing your mental game, and making small adjustments, you can turn things around and achieve a positive win rate over time. Remember, poker is a marathon, not a sprint—stay disciplined, keep learning, and trust the process.

Okay so we have a plan. It’s a bit too much to do in one sitting but I’ll try to do all of this over the next few weeks and see how we go. Good luck us!

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