Winning sesh but well below EV. Getting wrecked in 3BP as PFC which destroyed my red line and losing every flip imaginable.
This one I thought BB would be heavily weighted to flush draws on turn so I thought the river bet was mostly overbluffing but it turns out he’s still just a nit reg like everyone else and I shouldn’t give him credit for bluffing.
We’re supposed to fold turn and continue with our 9X that also has a FD. A surprising number of raises given BB polarization because we still have lots of combo draws and made hands that (in theory) haven’t bet yet – though I would always bet them on turn.
We do have a lot of 9X that bluff catches river but it just turns out that T9o is our worst 9X to have.
Using AI solve, villain’s preferred sizing is b100 on turn. Vs that action T9o is a sometimes bluff catcher.
But against nit regs who aren’t finding bluffs with all the trash they’re supposed to bluff with we can overfold.
A nit reg isn’t going to find all of these bluffs.
Our hand sometimes bluffs on turn to fold out better hands like AQ, KQ, JT, TT, 88 but it’s not the best bluffing hand given it blocks a lot of their folding range.
Vs jam we would just call with all of our combo draws and pp.
Here we are supposed to x flop. I usually do half or 3/4 pot with range on paired boards but there are some that we shouldn’t do this on. EV is nearly identical for bet and x.
If we’re going to bet flop we should be barreling turn small with most of our range on the A turn…
A better play would be x/c flop, lead turn. We get to lead range on this turn…
A quick look at strategy for paired boards in this formation…
Overall we are betting 75% of the time…but on any paired board where the lowest card is below a T we can check a lot…
Need to practice these more…