Recall from the downswing post…
Review Your Game for Leaks
- Analyze Hand Histories: Use tracking software (e.g., PokerTracker, Hold’em Manager) to review your hands. Focus on spots where you lost the most money or made questionable decisions.
- Identify Common Mistakes:
- Are you overvaluing hands in marginal spots?
- Are you calling too much or folding too much in certain situations?
- Are you bluffing too often or not often enough?
- Focus on All-In EV Spots: Since you’re running under EV, review your all-in decisions. Are you getting your money in good, or are you making -EV shoves/calls?
So let’s focus on pots where we lost the most money or made questionable decisions.
Dealt to Hero: Jh Jc
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.62, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.37
Hero SPR on Flop: [33.21 effective]
Flop ($1.34): Ac 8d 5s
BB Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($1.34): Ac 8d 5s 7h
BB Bets $0.43 (Rem. Stack: $55.04), HERO Calls $0.43 (Rem. Stack: $44.07)
River ($2.20): Ac 8d 5s 7h 8c
BB Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $54.29), HERO Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $43.32)
BB shows: 6h 8h
BB wins: $3.52
Questions:
1) Should we be range betting with this hand on this flop?
In theory it’s not a range board flop, it’s a b25/x split, so many of our pp will x flop.
2) Should we station the small bets on turn and river after x flop?
Villain’s turn lead is supposed to be 2e. So when he goes b25 we call turn with everything except K high/Q high.
He’s supposed to b75 river so when he goes b33 we start to fold some JJ but mainly call.
3) Does it play any different from 180bb vs 100bb?
No, exact same.
Dealt to Hero: Ah Tc
UTG Folds, UTG_1 Folds, MP Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $1.55, HERO Calls $1
Hero SPR on Flop: [15.29 effective]
Flop ($3.35): 8h Ts Qc
SB Bets $1.04 (Rem. Stack: $55.48), HERO Calls $1.04 (Rem. Stack: $50.17)
Turn ($5.43): 8h Ts Qc 6c
SB Bets $8.77 (Rem. Stack: $46.71), HERO Calls $8.77 (Rem. Stack: $41.40)
River ($22.97): 8h Ts Qc 6c 9d
SB Bets $7.20 (Rem. Stack: $39.51), HERO Calls $7.20 (Rem. Stack: $34.20)
SB shows: Td 8c
SB wins: $35.50
Questions:
1) Should we be calling OB on turn with 2nd pair GK?
Villain really shouldn’t be using an overbet on the turn. When he does we should fold out 2nd pair without the flush draw.
The exploit should be, if we don’t think he’s doing this with combo draws and flush draws we should fold all 2nd pair without FD.
2) Should we be bluff shoving after small river bet?
We should be folding on the one-liner. We have a lot of JX that shows up here so our bluffs should be more centered around 8X and 6X.
Let’s check for over-valuing hands…
To do this I’ll check my value bets and raises on river and my bluffcatchers
All hands where I bet river ACR:
It would not appear that I misvalued any hands.
All hands where I bet river CP:
Potentially ATo, BB v BTN. J9o is clearly a bluff and not a value bet.
Let’s check the ATo hand…
Dealt to Hero: As Th
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $1.30, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.75
Hero SPR on Flop: [15.97 effective]
Flop ($3.05): 8s 2s Td
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.95 (Rem. Stack: $85.06), HERO Calls $0.95 (Rem. Stack: $47.75)
Turn ($4.95): 8s 2s Td 2d
HERO Checks, BTN Checks
River ($4.95): 8s 2s Td 2d Qc
HERO Bets $3.14 (Rem. Stack: $44.61), BTN Calls $3.14 (Rem. Stack: $81.92)
BTN shows: Qs Ah
BTN wins: $10.67
Questions:
1) How often should we be raising flop with and without spades?
Vs b33, we should be raising about 20% of the time. Vs the appropriate b75, far less, <10% of the time.
2) Can we value bet river? What is the actual equity of our hand?
Every 2nd pair EXCEPT AT bets river and AT specifically has ~82% equity. The EV of check/call is about 6.5 and the EV of bet is slightly higher.
3) Why does AT x and every other TX bet?
Probably because having an A blocks them from having one. They wouldn’t bluff with an A so we block their x back hands.
4) Does this theme hold on other boards?
Yes, if you change it to 982tt the same thing happens.
What about our river raises?
Looks fine, not very many of them. There are 2 bluffs and 1 value raise which looks fine.
What about bluff catchers?
Not great results in the river call efficiency.
Dealt to Hero: Qs Ts
UTG Raises To $0.55, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $1.92, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $1.37
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.75 effective]
Flop ($4.19): Ah 7d 3h
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $0.99 (Rem. Stack: $23.12), UTG Calls $0.99 (Rem. Stack: $42.58)
Turn ($6.17): Ah 7d 3h Th
UTG Checks, HERO Checks
River ($6.17): Ah 7d 3h Th 4s
UTG Bets $4.62 (Rem. Stack: $37.96), HERO Calls $4.62 (Rem. Stack: $18.50)
UTG shows: 3d 3s
UTG wins: $14.64
Questions:
1) Do we range bet this flop?
Theory has 20% x but mainly b33% and no substantial EV loss as a results of range betting.
2) Should we be calling this river?
I think it’s pretty obvious we should fold but I called so what am I doing? Have to think about that. If he would have done a small bet I could have raised.
3) If he’s not raising sets what adjustments do we make?
Assuming he also won’t donk turn then we just have a very narrow betting range on turn and we don’t raise as much vs b75 on river.
How about all in situations?
Turn (or earlier):
Dealt to Hero: 9h 9d
UTG Folds, HJ Calls $0.25, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $1.50, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls $1.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.77 effective]
Flop ($3.35): 8h 5h 7h
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $0.32 (Rem. Stack: $72.98), HJ Raises To $4.31 (Rem. Stack: $18.37), HERO Calls $3.99 (Rem. Stack: $68.99)
Turn ($11.97): 8h 5h 7h Ts
HJ Bets $18.37 (allin), HERO Calls $18.37 (Rem. Stack: $50.62)
River ($48.71): 8h 5h 7h Ts 8d
HJ shows: Jh Th
HJ wins: $46.28
Questions:
1) It’s already off the rails preflop with limp call, even more off the rails with x/r vs this idiot. Is it prudent to give up the SFD vs turn shove?
I think yes. For some reason when I was recollecting this hand I thought I also had a straight but I didn’t. So maybe that jolted me in to calling in game or maybe I just thought he was a spazzy donkey. It’s indifferent at eq so it doesn’t matter I guess.
How’s my efficiency vs river bet sizes larger than b50?
Looks like mostly folds on both sites.
Next time lets see if we’re folding too much…