Off to a terrible start to Feb…
Down over 5 buy-ins and about 2.5 buy-ins under EV. This could’ve easily swung the other way if a few all ins would’ve went my way.
Here I got a bit stationy with A5s.
On flop, raise is a possibility but I don’t see the value in getting rid of their bluffs so early and I don’t it saves us from getting stacked by better AX hands.
Same thing on turn. Note villain is using larger sizing than he should be so he is more weighted to value. Even given that our hand is still a great EV call than fold at this point.
On river we face jam and in theory our hand is a mix with AQ being our threshold for pure calling. Given I have this guy tagged as a tighter reg, I don’t think he’s finding the requisite bluffs like KQo, K6, 77, 66 I think we should turn our hand in to a pure fold.
Theory has villain showing up with a lot of bluffs here (i.e. nearly half of his range). I don’t think this guy is ever bluffing here so I need to fold this spot.
Again, on flop, with NFD we have a no brainer call.
Again, on turn, villain uses large sizing with value. In position with a draw to the nuts we can continue with all of our flush draws.
We hit our Ace on river but we’re still behind AK. Theory says to call 80% of the time. The important things to check is are we ever beating villain’s value and if we are bluff catching how are our blocker properties. With AQ I think we’re trying to beat villain’s value. So what is his value here?
We’re blocking a lot of the hands that we would be ahead of like AsJs, AsTs, As9s. The only value hands we’re beating are the bad suited Aces which we block and the hands that he’s supposed to bluff flop and turn with like Ad5d he probably doesn’t find those bluffs in game.
When we give him far fewer bluffs we are not touching any of his value so we’re sitting around ~30% equity so right on the fence. Again I think we have to look at player profile and figure that a tight reg is not value betting less than AQ here so we should find a fold.
Here we’re going to have an exploitative read to take a look at.
Facing raise on flop we don’t in theory have a raising range if UTG is balanced.
So far he hasn’t done anything out of line. He’s supposed to raise some AQs because it’s near top of range for him. I doubt he’s likely to find the 99, 88, 66, 76, 65 type bluff hands. Let’s say that he raises a more standard 50NL reg type of range which would be more weighted to sets and AX.
So his range looks more like this…
Then we start to have a small raising range, mostly with AK with a heart…
If he does this all the time, we can exploit by ALWAYS raising AK or by overfolding river since he would be more meant to check on turn.
Here on flop we have a raising range made up of some strong value hands along with some combo and flush draws. If we suspect villain is cbetting too frequently we can always raise these.
We should often be barreling our draws on turn. In game I thought that because villain called the flop raise that the 6 fit the board better for the caller (i.e. BB).
Vs. a more reasonable sized by on turn we can call but facing shove with a drawing hand I think okay to fold here. If we would’ve bet turn and got shoved on then SPR makes it such that we have to call off.