Today’s focus was to be on always consider between the two options of bet and check and which is better EV for my hand, as well as following up on bluff catching and x/r follow through.
Hand #1
This is the hand that summarizes how I’ve been running the past few months. Get it in good and get binked on.
In game I was thinking this was most likely set over set and he’d be forced to call but I didn’t give much weight to the combo draws so I need to think about that. I like the raise by MP on turn here. I think it’s probably a fold for him after I 3 bet him but I could be wrong. I don’t think I need to always play this as a raise as I am nutted but in game I just thought he likely had a hand that he’s never folding.
Flop:
Being disconnected, it’s a range bet board for me using b80. In game I found b75. Because I’m betting range he should find a lot of x/r here and A5s is nearly pure x/r. He’s also raising pocket pairs and some 9X.
Turn:
I’m supposed to have some sets that slowplay and in fact my hand mostly plays as a slowplay although the EV is roughly the same.
Because he is supposed to pure raise his hand on flop, it’s not in his range on turn. If we give him a smaller raising range on flop then he is supposed to lead turn. That doesn’t happen very often so I have to take the turn donk out of his range entirely. If I do that then my response is supposed to be to check range. If I’m not doing that and I give myself a 50/50 split on turn then my hand is a pure bet for b25. I think in this case I’d be using 2e/x split. It’s an absolute disaster of a sim because he is then supposed to raise range which is never happening. I think in reality it’s more likely his frequencies are closer to raising 8% and folding about 45% of the time. Then and only then is he supposed to raise his hand at some frequency and my hand plays better as a call on turn.
Using just the normal sim everything plays out fine in both scenarios with EV being roughly equal.
Hand #2
Flop is pretty standard. On turn I should be playing my draws more aggressively as we can call a raise with all of our combo draws.
As played he can have a lot of bets on river and our hand becomes a pure fold.
Hand #3
Here we have a 3BP vs a good reg.
Flop
On flop we have a range betable board with a hand that benefits slightly from a bet rather than a check. In game I treated this a bit like a BTN v BB spot where often Ace low low boards are checked back.
Turn
On turn we go for a delayed cbet which is fine with JT, blocking a lot of UTG AX that would call pre. He should be mixing call/fold with his middle pocket pair, which we later found out was exactly what he had (99).
River
The river K is very good for our range and for the same reasons our hand makes a good bluff on turn it also does so on river. This bet on river is supposed to fold out all pocket pair and even gets some folds out of AQ-AT which A9-A8 are supposed to call more, unblocking my bluffs – which would be the Q high region and my exact holding.
Hand #4
Flop
On flop we play this as a x/c with somewhat middle equity. We could be the KT or AT but QT mostly checks this flop. Villain’s sizing is larger than it should be.
Turn
On turn our hand plays slightly better as a call than a shove, keeping in hands like AQ, AJ and some draws like A4, K6, 76.
Hand #5
Just looking at the bluff catching merits on river. Our hand is already indifferent on turn and vs 3 barrels is -EV on river. Top pair makes up the majority of our calling range.
Hand #6
This is one I know I should call the river raise but I’m actually proud of folding given this villain has never bluffed in his life. So well aware that it should be a pure call and sometimes raise but happy with a humble fold.
Hand #7
This one I was torn between the EV of bet vs x/r on river. Looks like a higher EV big bet rather than check because they can check back a lot of QX and KX.
Vs the big bet they can still raise some sets and call a lot so we’re better off just betting.
Hand #8
Here I think we were too sensitive to the OSCDC and for this sizing we could stick in a call with our top pair although maybe not since we don’t beat any value and I don’t give them credit for finding 88-22 here as bluffs.
Hand #9
Here’s one that is a pure call in solver that in game I decided was a good exploitative fold.
Pros of calling:
We still beat some AXs that would still be value betting on river
Villain is 41/32 albeit over a small sample size
Cons of calling:
Underbluffed formation
Now not beating AT
Overall I think we have to put in the call on this vs an unknown with these numbers.